The Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies condemns the unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine and the brutal war it is conducting against the Ukrainian people.  The heroic resistance of the Ukrainians and their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has galvanized support for the country around the world.   We support them in their struggle against the Russian effort to pound their fledgling democracy into surrender.

The resistance to the Russian incursion appears to have frustrated Russian president Vladimir Putin’s apparent expectation that his assault would lead to a quick victory.  Russian difficulties in taking Ukraine as easily as they might have expected portend a long, devastating conflict – perhaps involving an occupation and an insurgency — that may take years to resolve.

The Russian invasion is causing widespread death, injury, destruction of infrastructure, hunger, and forced displacement among Ukrainians.  War crimes and crimes against humanity, such as the bombing of a maternity hospital, bespeak the cruel and desperate situation into which the Ukrainians have been thrust.  Lacking fuel for heat, they face frigid winter temperatures; without water, they are melting snow to have water to drink.  We are witnessing a humanitarian disaster of massive proportions.

Some two million Ukrainians have fled their homes for neighboring countries that so far have, fortunately, been willing to take them in.  Another million or more are internally displaced and trying to survive as best they can.  Efforts to create humanitarian corridors for food and medical supplies have been halting and, in at least one case, attacked by the Russians after being agreed upon by both sides.  It seems clear that the Russians are trying to bomb Ukraine into submission.  Diplomatic efforts have thus far proved unavailing, although talks continue.

We stress that the Russian people cannot be held responsible for the horrifying actions of their leaders.  Several thousand Russians have been arrested for protesting against the war being conducted in their name.  Out of fear for the future of their country and for their well-being, thousands of Russians are leaving their country in search of a safe harbor.  Journalists have been forced to flee after the government’s adoption of a law criminalizing what Putin’s regime regards as false statements about the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine.  Independent sources of information are harder and harder for Russians to come by.

What can those who support Ukraine do to help?  The primary objective must be to bring the war to an end as soon as possible.  Some, especially including Ukrainian president Zelensky, wish the West to enforce a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine.  Such a move runs the risk of creating a wider war with more death and destruction, as well as a possible nuclear escalation, and has been ruled out by NATO.  In the meantime, however, NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons to support their fight.  The United States Congress has just appropriated $13.6 billion in emergency aid.

Other than military assistance, sanctions are the most promising tool for achieving an end to the war, forcing Putin and his allies to suffer a deterioration of their position unless they stop the war.  But sanctions have their limits as well.  Sanctions against oligarchs may help, but it’s not clear how much control they have over Putin, the real decision-maker in Russia.  Sanctions on the soloviki, the members of Putin’s inner circle of advisers and cronies, may have greater effect insofar as these actors are close to the seat of power.  Sanctions against Putin are an obvious matter, but it is difficult to seize liquid assets hidden around the world as opposed to physical assets such as yachts and buildings.  Sanctions against Russia as a whole will create discontent among the Russian people, however undeserved, increasing pressure on Putin to change course.

Ultimately, a negotiated solution must be found to end this tragic, unwarranted, and brutal war.  At present, however, there is no sign of an “off-ramp” for Putin to back down from what he has started but may not be able to finish for months or years to come.  Putin wants to push back NATO and to absorb Ukraine into the Russian state he envisions.  We don’t know whether he would be willing to accept the casualties involved in using nuclear weapons, but we cannot rule it out, either.

Insofar as NATO expansion lies at the root of this war in Putin’s eyes, Ukrainian neutrality may have to be exchanged in order to save Ukrainian lives.  It is not an appealing bargain, but it may be a necessary one if we are to avoid the most destructive war in Europe since World War II.  And this deal will look more appealing to Ukrainians if it brings a halt to the bloodshed, destruction, and starvation that seem likely to ensue in the weeks to come unless there is some resolution of the conflict.

John Torpey

Director, Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies

CUNY Graduate Center